Most mass losses in the war thus far have occurred during "offensives" by either side - with the major losses going to the attacker, as is typically the case. All signs point to a Russian Spring offensive soon. I think a lot depends on how it goes. If the offensive fails again at great cost, then the futility of these offensives - at least to any sensible leadership - may be too obvious to deny.

In which case, we'd likely see Russia reframing "victory" to mean simply defending territory it has gained. And then the conflict settles into a sort of WW1 style trench warfare, but at the squad level and with modern weapons. This would tend to favor the slow bleed strategy because a steady supply of western weapons could allow Ukraine to keep up strikes while minimizing losses. And they could keep this up for some time - again, provided western support is maintained.

As to Afghanistan and Vietnam, the presence or absence of irredentism doesn't appear to be particularly important. If the implication is that the absence of it would tend to soften the resolve of the attacker, then this wouldn't explain the 10 year Soviet commitment in Afghanistan or the 22 year US commitment in Afghanistan or the 8 year French commitment in Vietnam or the 20 year US commitment in Vietnam.

The bottom line is, as bodies, material losses, and harms to reputation pile up, the pressure mounts no matter what the cause. Even in what most consider the last "just" war, pressure was mounting towards the end to terminate hostilities. Even the hardest souls, crack. Compare Hitler at the start of the war - a fiery, supremely confident, and self-righteous dictator - to Hitler at the end of the war - a sickly, petulant, delusional, old man with uncontrollable shakes. I don't know about you, but I saw an unhealthy, paranoid, anxiety-riddled, Putin with pallor in his most recent interview with Tucker Carlson. I think the war is taking a toll on him, regardless of the State mechanisms in place to hide it.

So, you know, we obviously don't know the future. But, I wouldn't necessarily throw in the towel just yet.

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